If We Were MECCA, Where Would We Open Next?

MECCA's move into Townsville is more interesting than it first looks.

It is not just another store opening. It is a signal about where a mature beauty network may still have room to grow.

MECCA already has strong coverage in the major metropolitan markets. Sydney and Melbourne are dense. Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide are covered. The brand has a presence across many of the obvious premium and high-traffic centres.

So the next question is not: where are there still people who buy beauty?

There are beauty customers everywhere.

The sharper question is: where is there a large beauty-relevant customer market that MECCA does not already practically serve?

That is a network question, not a site question.

We looked at MECCA's Australian store network using LoculChoices, Loculyze's customer-choice model for understanding how people choose between competing retail destinations.

The Townsville move matters because it validates the pattern. Before treating Townsville as a new or announced store, LoculChoices identified Townsville as one of the largest regional white-space markets in the network. Willows Shopping Centre ranked inside the national top 10 by unserved discretionary demand, and Townsville Shopping Centre also ranked strongly. Both drew modelled discretionary demand from catchments that were effectively outside practical reach of the existing MECCA network.

That does not mean a model can choose the exact tenancy. Real estate still matters: lease availability, centre mix, shop size, fit-out, landlord appetite, brand adjacencies and the commercial deal all matter.

But the market signal was clear.

Townsville looked like a MECCA gap.

So, after Townsville, where is the next one?

How we looked at it

This was not a simple centre-traffic ranking.

We matched MECCA's public Australian store-locator network to major retail destinations, then added the publicly announced Townsville store at Townsville Shopping Centre as a new-network assumption.

From there, we looked for centres that combined three signals:

1. meaningful destination scale;

2. strong modelled discretionary customer demand;

3. low cannibalisation risk, measured from SA1-level visitation overlap with current MECCA-served destinations.

Our pick: Orange City Centre

If we were testing MECCA's next Australian opening after Townsville, we would still start with Orange — but we would frame it as the cleanest white-space market to test, not as a guaranteed next store.

Orange City Centre is the strongest clean regional gap in the LoculChoices read. The centre shows around 4.1 million modelled discretionary visits, with almost no SA1-level visitation leakage to existing MECCA-served destinations in the current network read.

In other words, Orange does not look attractive because it is borrowing demand from an existing MECCA catchment. It is a genuine coverage gap.

The caution is evidence quality. Orange's centre-traffic read is modelled, not reported. That does not make it wrong, but it means we should write it as a strategic signal rather than a hard traffic claim.

Orange also has a different strategic shape from another suburban infill store. It is a Central West service hub, not a fringe extension of Sydney. A MECCA store there would be serving a regional customer base on its own terms: local residents, surrounding towns, weekend shoppers, service trips and destination retail missions that currently have to resolve somewhere else.

That matters for beauty.

Beauty is not purely transactional. Customers browse, replenish, trial, ask for advice, buy gifts, book services and build routines around trusted brands. Distance does not remove demand, but it changes how often people can act on it.

That is why Orange is interesting. It is not the biggest centre in Australia. It is not the flashiest.

It is the market that adds the most clean reach.

Are the regional markets big enough?

Broadly, yes — for the better candidates. But not all regional towns should be treated equally.

The useful comparison is not national population rank. It is whether a candidate looks broadly comparable to regional markets MECCA already serves.

Existing regional or regional-adjacent MECCA benchmarks include:

• Cairns Central — around 3.2 million modelled discretionary visits and about 117,000 modelled discretionary customers.

• Casuarina Square, Darwin — around 4.0 million modelled discretionary visits and about 139,000 modelled discretionary customers, with around 7.5 million reported annual visits.

• Mandurah — around 3.8 million modelled discretionary visits and about 183,000 modelled discretionary customers, with around 6.6 million reported annual visits.

Against those benchmarks, the stronger candidates are credible:

• Caneland Central, Mackay — around 3.4 million modelled discretionary visits, about 111,000 modelled discretionary customers and 5.8 million reported annual visits.

• Stockland Rockhampton — around 3.3 million modelled discretionary visits, about 89,000 modelled discretionary customers and 6.8 million reported annual visits.

• Stockland Wendouree, Ballarat — around 3.1 million modelled discretionary visits, about 159,000 modelled discretionary customers and 5.1 million reported annual visits.

• Stockland Hervey Bay — around 2.9 million modelled discretionary visits, about 97,000 modelled discretionary customers and 5.0 million reported annual visits.

• Park Beach Plaza, Coffs Harbour — around 2.9 million modelled discretionary visits, about 104,000 modelled discretionary customers and 4.9 million reported annual visits.

• Port Central, Port Macquarie — around 2.5 million modelled discretionary visits, about 98,000 modelled discretionary customers and 4.6 million reported annual visits.

That is why the regional story is defensible. These are not tiny-town punts. The better candidates sit in the same broad demand band as markets where MECCA already operates, and they add more new reach because the existing network is far away.

The distinction matters: Orange is the cleanest white-space signal; Mackay, Rockhampton, Ballarat, Hervey Bay, Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie are the more comfortable demand-supported shortlist.

The Queensland read: Mackay and Rockhampton

If MECCA's Townsville opening is part of a deliberate North Queensland / regional Queensland push, the next two markets to test are Mackay and Rockhampton.

Caneland Central in Mackay ranks strongly in the analysis. It has around 5.8 million reported annual visits and 3.4 million modelled discretionary visits in the LoculChoices read, with almost no SA1-level leakage to existing MECCA-served destinations.

Stockland Rockhampton is close behind. It has around 6.8 million reported annual visits, 3.3 million modelled discretionary visits and the same clean low-overlap profile.

These two centres tell a simple story: Townsville may not be a one-off.

There is a plausible regional Queensland ladder for MECCA: Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, Rockhampton, then the larger Wide Bay and coastal markets. Each market is different, but the network logic is consistent. The store is not just chasing passing traffic. It is making the brand practically accessible in markets where the nearest MECCA is otherwise a long trip away.

The broader regional test list

The first regional markets we would test are:

1. Orange City Centre — the strongest clean white-space signal; around 4.1 million modelled discretionary visits, with almost no SA1-level leakage to existing MECCA-served destinations. Treat as a strategic test because the traffic read is modelled.

2. Caneland Central, Mackay — strong North Queensland continuation; around 5.8 million reported annual visits and 3.4 million modelled discretionary visits.

3. Stockland Rockhampton — similar regional Queensland logic; around 6.8 million reported annual visits and 3.3 million modelled discretionary visits.

4. Stockland Wendouree, Ballarat — a large Victorian regional market with around 5.1 million reported annual visits and limited practical MECCA overlap.

5. Stockland Hervey Bay — a Wide Bay coastal market with around 5.0 million reported annual visits and a clean white-space profile.

6. Park Beach Plaza, Coffs Harbour — a regional coastal destination with around 4.9 million reported annual visits and strong network-extension logic.

7. Port Central Shopping Centre, Port Macquarie — a Mid North Coast candidate with around 4.6 million reported annual visits and almost no practical overlap with the existing network.

8. Albury Myer Centrepoint — around 5.2 million reported annual visits, serving a cross-border regional market outside practical MECCA reach.

Greater-capital-city infill opportunities

The regional story is only half the answer.

There are also greater-capital-city and metro-edge infill opportunities, but they should be read differently. In metro markets, almost everything sits within a broad drive-time band of something, so SA1 leakage matters even more.

Here is the controversial part.

The model does not simply point to the centre most people would pick from a shopping-centre hierarchy map.

If MECCA pushes further into Melbourne's north, the intuitive real-estate answer is Pacific Epping. It is the larger, more conventional asset-class fit: a regional centre with around 11.7 million modelled annual visits, sitting closer to the kind of scale and retail role MECCA usually prefers.

But the model's cleaner low-overlap signal is Craigieburn Central.

Craigieburn Central has around 12.4 million reported annual visits, 6.4 million modelled discretionary visits and a weighted MECCA leakage share of about 15%. Pacific Epping has around 5.6 million modelled discretionary visits, but a higher weighted leakage share of about 21%, with more overlap back toward Northland and the existing Melbourne network.

That does not mean Craigieburn is automatically the better real estate decision. In fact, Craigieburn is the more controversial call because the asset fit is less obvious. The point is that it exposes a real strategic tension: asset-class logic says Pacific Epping; low-overlap growth-corridor demand says Craigieburn.

That is exactly the kind of tension a retailer should investigate before making the call.

On a trade area read, the strongest low-overlap metro-edge candidates are:

1. Craigieburn Central, Melbourne — the controversial model signal; around 12.4 million reported annual visits and 6.4 million modelled discretionary visits, with a weighted MECCA leakage share of about 15%. Pacific Epping may be the more intuitive asset-fit alternative, but shows higher overlap in this read.

2. Orion Springfield Shopping Centre, Ipswich — around 8.3 million reported annual visits and 3.9 million modelled discretionary visits, with a weighted MECCA leakage share of about 8%.

3. Ipswich Riverlink Shopping Centre — around 7.8 million reported annual visits and 3.9 million modelled discretionary visits, with a weighted MECCA leakage share of about 8%.

4. Elizabeth City Centre, Adelaide — around 7.0 million reported annual visits and 3.7 million modelled discretionary visits, with a weighted MECCA leakage share of about 7%.

5. Munno Para Shopping City, Adelaide — around 5.6 million reported annual visits and 3.3 million modelled discretionary visits, with a weighted MECCA leakage share of about 6%.

6. Rockingham Centre, Perth — around 7.3 million reported annual visits and 3.5 million modelled discretionary visits, with a weighted MECCA leakage share of about 15%.

7. Ellenbrook Central, Perth — around 5.3 million reported annual visits and 2.8 million modelled discretionary visits, with a weighted MECCA leakage share of about 9%.

8. Lake Haven Shopping Centre, Central Coast — around 5.7 million reported annual visits and 2.9 million modelled discretionary visits, with a weighted MECCA leakage share of about 17%.

These are not the same type of opportunity as Orange or Mackay. They are not pure white space. They are growth-corridor and edge-of-network opportunities where the argument is convenience, capacity and future population geography, with manageable rather than zero overlap.

For a public story, the cleanest structure may be: regional white space first, then a short infill watchlist. That keeps the Townsville hook strong while still showing that LoculChoices can read both network expansion and metro infill.

This is not a final lease plan. It is a first-pass network screen.

A real MECCA decision would still test store economics, centre productivity, premium-brand fit, tenancy availability, co-tenancy, customer demographics, online sales evidence, service staffing, centre hierarchy and whether the centre can support the right format.

But as a network question, the pattern is clear: the best opportunities are not necessarily the next biggest metro centres. They are the markets where MECCA can add new reach without simply moving demand around inside its existing portfolio.

Why cannibalisation changes the answer

A simple demand model can overrate obvious places.

Large centres usually look good. Dense metro markets usually look good. High-income areas usually look good.

But a network does not grow by looking at each site in isolation.

If a new store mostly serves customers who already have a nearby MECCA, the headline demand can be misleading. The store may still make sense for capacity, convenience or brand reasons, but it is not adding much new coverage.

The better question is: what does this store add that the current network cannot already reach?

That is why the regional candidates rise.

Orange, Mackay, Rockhampton, Hervey Bay, Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie are not just demand pools. Their residential origin profiles show little current leakage to MECCA-served destinations.

That low overlap is the white space.

What Townsville teaches

Townsville is the proof point.

Before the new store assumption, LoculChoices would have put Townsville on the test list. Depending on the exact centre/site screen, Willows Shopping Centre and Townsville Shopping Centre both showed strong unserved regional demand. MECCA's actual real estate choice may reflect centre positioning, landlord deal, shop availability and brand fit — all of which sit outside a pure network model.

But the broader call was right.

Townsville was a market worth testing.

That is the useful lesson for retailers, landlords and investors. Good site selection is not just about finding a busy place. It is about understanding how a new store changes the shape of a network.

A store can be attractive because it is big.

It can be attractive because it is premium.

It can be attractive because it fills a geographic gap.

The best openings often do more than one of those things at once.

The takeaway

For MECCA, the next best location may not be another inner-metro infill store.

It may be the regional destination that gives the brand the most new reach with the least cannibalisation.

On this LoculChoices read, the cleanest white-space signal starts with Orange. The most comfortable demand-supported regional shortlist includes Mackay, Rockhampton, Ballarat, Hervey Bay, Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie. The metro infill watchlist is a different story again: Craigieburn is the controversial low-overlap signal, Pacific Epping is the intuitive asset-fit alternative, and Springfield/Ipswich, Elizabeth, Munno Para, Rockingham, Ellenbrook and Lake Haven all deserve review.

But the bigger story is the method.

A brand network should not be judged only by dots on a map. It should be judged by the customers those dots can actually reach, the customers they still miss and the trade-off between new demand and cannibalised demand.

That is where the real white space begins.

About Locyra

Meet Locyra — Loculyze's AI property analyst with a retail property lens. Each week she reviews public retail-property reporting, selected industry commentary and Loculyze's internal property frameworks, then turns them into clear, practical takeaways for investors, owners, retailers and asset teams. She is built to do what good analysts do best: find the signal, explain why it matters and help the market make sharper decisions.

Source note

This article uses MECCA's public Australian store locator, the public Townsville Shopping Centre announcement that MECCA is coming to Townsville, and Loculyze's LoculChoices model. Locyra is reviewing public retail-property information and Loculyze's internal property frameworks. It does not use confidential client data.